With all the action in New York today with Weld, it’s easy to overlook the CA-50 special election to replace Rep. Duke Cunningham – which is huge deal in DC tonight as the sun goes down and local California polls close shortly.
And no one has as much at stake as New York GOP Congressman Tom Reynolds, Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), and prime benefactor of the GOP candidate Brian Bilbray, a former member of Congress.
The good news is that it appears from the general buzz on the ground that Bilbray is going to defeat the Democrat candidate, Francine Busby, by 3 to 5%.
A third party candidate complicates matters, but some of the folks on the ground from both sides think Bilbray will pull this one out, and a last minute Busby gaffe on immigration (you know the deal if you’re reading this) was beautifully exploited by the NRCC and Bilbray campaign. Closing in the last several days under heavy fire on a volatile issue is a bad place to be.
Out on a limb: Busby’s going down.
For Tom Reynolds, already getting notice for being an excellent successor to U.S. Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), one of the best NRCC Chairs, ever, a win tonight will further advance his street cred in DC.
Even if Reynolds, Bilbray and the NRCC take this one tonite, the backspin will be tough to deal with. The lede will still mostly point to this just being a finger in the dike of a bigger coming wave. We’ll see – not yet sold on a GOP House debacle as the GOP sits in a cyclical public opinion trough.
Regardless of a win, Reynolds has his hands full dealing with the D triple-c’s hardcore Rahm Emmanuel (D-IL) – also getting an excellent reputation, much as Tony Coelho did — as a guy who really understands the nuance and ebb and flow of campaigns.
If Reynolds can hold the House, his future is huge.